May 15, 2019 the monsoon is an interesting beast to try to forecast, arizona state university climatologist randy cerveny said wednesday to ktar news 92. Arizona could have monsoon season without rain arizona. We just dont have a lot of historical precedent to build our forecast on. Prior to 2008, the phoenix area monsoon season was considered to start when there were three consecutive days that the dew point averaged 55 degrees or higher, but in 2008 the national weather service decided to take the guesswork out of monsoon start and end dates. Heres an update on some of the largest fires burning in arizona right now and. The maps below are focused on capturing unique elements of the summer monsoon season across arizona including total precipitation, intensity, and frequency of precipitation events. Two ingredients are necessary to produce the monsoon. With it comes higher humidity, which can lead to thunderstorms, heavy rain, lightning, hail, high winds, flash flooding, dust storms and extreme heat. The storms usually peak between midjuly to midaugust and usually the monsoon season is over by around september. Arizona and new mexico receive up to half of their annual rainfall during the.
National weather service weather forecast office tucson, az. Learn more about the hazards that come along with monsoon here. Phoenix 3tvcbs 5 with just days to go until the start of the 2019 arizona monsoon, insurance company allstate has put out a list of 20 zip codes in phoenix and the surrounding areas that are. Jun 15, 2017 thursday marked the official beginning of the arizona monsoon that will last until sept. Luckily, this year is shaping up to be a little different than normal, and in the best way possible. To see long term forecasts for the entire year, pick up a copy of the 2020 old farmers almanac, available online and in stores.
Projected average climate the north american monsoon season, characterized by summertime thunderstorms and increased rainfall in the southwest. Late start predicted for 2019 arizona monsoon season. Jun 18, 2019 late start predicted for 2019 arizona monsoon season northern arizona meteorologists are predicting cooler water in the sea of cortez and a later start to the 2019 monsoon. Unfortunately, its predictability becomes very low during the summer season, o malley said. The national weather service officially defines monsoon season as the period between june 15 and september 30. In last three seasons, actual rainfall was below skymets april forecast in 2015 and 2016, while it got forecast correct in 2017. Arizonas monsoon status arizonas monsoon is the northern extent of the north american monsoon, which begins in early june in central and southern mexico. According to the climate prediction center, there is a 50% probability of aboveaverage temperatures in april. On average, the starting date for monsoon conditions in phoenix is july 7 and the average ending date is september, but the official season starts and ends much later than the data supportsallowing for preparation for unexpected early and lateseason monsoons. During the monsoon, thunderstorms are fueled by daytime. The monsoon season arrives in sedona sedona, arizona. With arizona in the grip of a yearslong drought, conditions are ripe for spawning intense wildfires and haboobs from the high winds and lightning that typically form the early part of monsoon season, which begins in two weeks. This is because the atmosphere is not as warm and the weakened subtropical ridge has begun to shift southward again.
Monsoon conditions and storms dont follow a set schedule, however. Jun 26, 2019 the national weather service officially defines monsoon season as the period between june 15 and september 30. The monsoon activity accounts for roughly half the annual precipitation in central arizona, and twothirds to threefourths of the annual precipitation in southern arizona. While the next week to 10 days will continue to be warm and dry around aspen, climate models indicate the upcoming monsoon season could start early and bring more rain than usual this summer, a forecaster said wednesday. Strong, early monsoon season predicted for western. In 2008 the national weather service decided to declare a monsoon season from june 15 to sept.
During the most recent episode, guido and crimmins discussed their predictions for the 2019 season based on forecasts and climate patterns, and how difficult it can be to predict the exact onset of the monsoon. In the phoenix area, the moisture is usually here by the first or second week in july. Thursday marked the official beginning of the arizona monsoon that will last until sept. The monsoon lasts longer in the south, usually beginning around the middle of june. While dramatic thunderstorms are the big stars of the monsoon, its the seasonal shift in wind, from about midjune to midseptember, that defines the phenomenon.
Seasonal drought outlook sdo include the climate prediction center cpc temperature and precipitation outlooks for may 2020 and mayjunejuly mjj 2020, various shortrange and mediumrange forecasts and models, such as the 7day. While the least rainfall was in 1924, only a scant 0. Ten tips to get your home ready for arizonas monsoon season. These kinds of storms are growing more intense in arizona and.
For instance, statistics compiled at one weather station, from 1896 through 2014 show a wide range of rainfall during the season. The 2017 southwest monsoon is weeks away, and the national weather service has released its forecast for the upcoming wet season. The muchanticipated first monsoon of the season hit phoenix monday night. Roughly 50% of the time, though, southern arizona s first thunderstorms roll between july 1 and july 8, leading to a season average of 6.
Jul 17, 2019 youll be happy to hear these predictions for arizonas 2019 monsoon season. The north american monsoon season begins on june 15 and ends on sept. Long range forecasts are regional, not cityspecific. How asu researchers are working to predict when monsoons will hit. Arizona s monsoon is the northern extent of the north american monsoon, which begins in early june in central and southern mexico. Southwest monsoon season in arizona, although the thunderstorms.
Apr 04, 2019 however, in arizona, the forecast can get tricky. Roughly 50% of the time, though, southern arizonas first thunderstorms roll between july 1 and july 8, leading to a season average of 6. The monsoon season suppresses much of the hot summer temperatures. Evacuees may come to the high school for shelter, food and information. Monsoon thunderstorms to increase in southwest following one. Maps are updated once a day from june 15 september 30th using gridded precipitation data nominally 4km by 4km provided by the national weather service advanced hydrologic prediction service. In most years, the monsoon season begins to wind down across northern arizona in september. The outlook for precipitation during monsoon 2018 in southeast arizona is discussed. Apr 03, 2019 skymet forecasts below normal southwest monsoon in 2019 at 93 percent of lpa april 3, 2019 1. The moistureladen monsoon air travels north to arizona and new mexico, encouraged by the pressure difference between the hot, parched southwestern air and the cooler mexican air. Its hard to say what all of this will mean for arizonas summer monsoon. In 2008, national weather service officials decided to consider june 15september 30 as the u. Sep 04, 2019 the north american monsoon season begins on june 15 and ends on sept.
We all know that once temperatures start rising, monsoon season isnt far away. Although the monsoon brings welcome rains and relief from the summer heat, the thunderstorms that come with the monsoon bring their own hazards. Monsoons in northern arizona, for example, usually show up around the fourth of july, but that could be delayed a couple of weeks, embry. Maps are updated once a day from june 15 september 30th using gridded precipitation data nominally 4km by 4km provided by the national weather service advanced.
Our monsoon is the most pronounced in southern arizona and becomes more marginal over northern arizona. Whats ahead in 2018 after recordbreaking weather in 2017. After all, since monsoon season is a season, most people should not be concerned with whether or not a particular dust storm. The arizona monsoon season in the phoenix area can be quite variable. That outlook is the opinion of experts at the climate prediction center in. Arizona could have monsoon season without rain arizona news. As usual, there could be heavy rains, electrical storms with loads of lightning, dust storms and those. The pleasant spring weather weve enjoyed in the phoenix area and throughout arizona could push back the start of the 2019 arizona monsoon. There are multiple climatological factors that shape the southwest monsoon, guido said. Monsoon season, as declared by the national weather service since 2008, begins june 15 and runs through sept. Skymet forecasts below normal southwest monsoon in 2019 at 93.
With austin lyon, katherine hughes, yvette monreal, eve plumb. The north american monsoon, variously known as the southwest monsoon, the mexican monsoon, the new mexican monsoon, or the arizona monsoon, is a pattern of pronounced increase in thunderstorms and rainfall over large areas of the southwestern united states and northwestern mexico, typically occurring between july and mid september. Adot urges drivers to be prepared for summer storms. There tends to be longer breaks between the rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Arizona s monsoon season begins in june and continues through september.
Have fun, enjoy the uniqueness the monsoon season does bring to the arizona landscape, but stay safe. Roughly 50 percent of the time, though, southern arizonas first thunderstorms roll. The old farmer s almanac s extended forecasts can be used to make more informed decisions about future plans that depend on the weather, from vacations and weddings to gardening, hiking, and other outdoor activities. Skymet predicts normal rainfall, relief for farmers on business standard. In fact, this is the most dangerous time of year weatherwise in the southwest. This fact sheet developed by institute of the environment, university of arizona. Skymet forecasts below normal southwest monsoon in 2019 at 93 percent of lpa april 3, 2019 1. Late start predicted for 2019 arizona monsoon season northern arizona meteorologists are predicting cooler water in the sea of cortez and a later. Yes, climate change is making arizonas monsoons more intense. The monsoon is a season, during which the dry westerly winds that persist through fall, winter and spring shift to moist southerly winds, bringing thunderstorm activity into arizona. See long range weather forecasts for the next 60 days for the desert southwest region.
Noaas climate prediction center suggests well see over a 60% chance of aboveaverage temperatures in arizona. Nature of arizona monsoon season makes it difficult to predict. Predicting the specific changes these storms will bring is a challenge, it said. With several active fires burning in arizona and a late onset monsoon season, fire danger is expected to remain high. Any idea as to this years arizona monsoon rain and how much well get. Youll be happy to hear these predictions for arizonas 2019 monsoon season. Apr 09, 2019 its hard to say what all of this will mean for arizonas summer monsoon. Skymet forecasts below normal southwest monsoon in 2019 at.
Northern arizona monsoon season national weather service. Monsoons adot arizona department of transportation. Jun 28, 2019 fireworks atop a mountain on july 4 commemorate independence day, but also usually mark the start of monsoon season and monsoon thunderstorms, according to local wisdom. While summer is a time of fun in the sun and letting go, it can also elicit fear in the hearts of arizonans. There are no evident trends in annual monsoon strength, making it difficult to predict. However, things took a turn during monsoon with very few storms in the tucson metro. Warmer than usual winter 20192020 forecast for arizona. February 2020 long range weather forecast for desert southwest. While summer is a time of fun in the sun and letting go, it can. Arizona s monsoon is from mid june through the end of september.
Rather than a wet and chilly season initially predicted, warmer than usual weather is likely on the horizon. The summers extreme heat can be lifethreatening, especially to those who work outside, people over 65, children under five, and those with preexisting medical conditions. Lets start off with some general information about monsoon season in northern arizona. Jun 25, 2019 during the most recent episode, guido and crimmins discussed their predictions for the 2019 season based on forecasts and climate patterns, and how difficult it can be to predict the exact onset of the monsoon. But those early storms could increase fire danger from dry lightning. The national weather service officially defines monsoon season as the period between june 15 and sept. Fireworks atop a mountain on july 4 commemorate independence day, but also usually mark the start of monsoon season and monsoon thunderstorms, according to local wisdom. Home expert assessments drought information seasonal drought outlook discussion. Arizonas monsoon is from mid june through the end of september.
Phoenix sky hrbr intl ap, az maricopa county, coop id. Monsoon will likely roll into tucson later than usual this. The monsoon is an interesting beast to try to forecast, arizona state university climatologist randy cerveny said wednesday to ktar news 92. Roughly 50 percent of the time, though, southern arizona s first thunderstorms roll. A hot spring could spark an early start to the monsoon. Monsoon thunderstorms to increase in southwest following. In the hot desert monsoon season of arizona, two best friends have trouble letting go. Southwest monsoon season in arizona, although the thunderstorms that bring the rain may form in different times and places across the region.
Late start to 2019 monsoon season predicted for arizona. Song a bubble bath and patron, lounge and zone out instrumental 86 bpm9212dnc. The monsoon season in arizona is from june 15 to september 30, but in phoenix it doesnt usually start until about early to midjuly with an average start date around july 7. Late start predicted for 2019 arizona monsoon season williams.